Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 36.718265 40.056198 43.738632 48.137432 53.296267 59.215347 66.611082
2025-03-16 30.536025 34.595637 39.369376 45.502732 53.338474 63.262240 77.225623
2025-03-23 28.115613 32.725739 38.405657 46.122033 56.686403 71.255661 94.167093
2025-03-30 25.902168 30.718782 36.851220 45.528216 58.049443 76.538134 108.539292
2025-04-06 24.255979 29.209671 35.690391 45.182783 59.529218 82.086468 124.985645
2025-04-13 22.334062 27.152469 33.564797 43.167578 58.129585 82.684997 132.667508
2025-04-20 21.739019 26.802319 33.713880 44.418221 61.906355 92.667446 163.053461
2025-04-27 20.832582 25.945533 33.054973 44.344055 63.467443 99.013379 188.929457
2025-05-04 20.601616 26.000431 33.693384 46.328519 68.838968 114.184726 248.737202
2025-05-11 19.932752 25.379181 33.268543 46.529289 71.008833 123.338111 300.166255
2025-05-18 19.602976 25.220935 33.519665 47.865151 75.545711 139.480803 400.397389
2025-05-25 18.800429 24.317536 32.549732 46.989913 75.519285 144.310918 459.671954
2025-06-01 17.770856 23.147102 31.276397 45.817426 75.484511 151.486096 569.079368
2025-06-08 16.541315 21.627686 29.374710 43.382297 72.481623 149.692890 626.215159
2025-06-15 16.039216 21.174389 29.141912 43.955583 76.232454 170.589011 1020.928481
2025-06-22 15.377762 20.430800 28.367992 43.405929 77.273906 183.579484 1552.649648
2025-06-29 14.820351 19.814156 27.754605 43.086032 78.808476 199.874158 2812.938912
2025-07-06 14.043567 18.813224 26.426935 41.217535 76.065670 197.280373 3476.093023
2025-07-13 13.835627 18.699809 26.600710 42.377588 81.503882 235.858905 40756.952825
2025-07-20 13.446618 18.274217 26.201278 42.308836 83.611363 261.561971 NaN
2025-07-27 13.369221 18.345966 26.676946 44.146637 91.817269 337.597254 NaN
2025-08-03 13.058755 18.017944 26.410726 44.332362 95.083388 389.603187 NaN
2025-08-10 12.907305 17.944534 26.600660 45.567162 102.272017 501.049936 NaN